Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
