Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
